The Third Assessment report issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has confirmed that climate is changing because of human activities and that weather and climate extremes will increase in many places. Floods, intense rainfalls and periods of drought will become more frequent. The reduction targets of the Kyoto Protocol are an important beginning, but fall far short of what is eventually required as called for by the scientific community. Inevitably, therefore, we shall have to face a higher number of natural catastrophes and will have to adapt to new climatic conditions on the planet.

2. Adapting To Change

The negotiations in the framework of the United Nations aim at mitigating the impact of climate change; even if the targets of reduction called for by the scientific community should be reached, weather patterns will change. Nations will therefore in any case need to adapt to changing situations.

3. New Injustice

Climate Change will cause enormous damage. Re-insurance companies speak of an annual amount of US$300 billion. The figure does not include adaptation costs. In addition, climate change has influence on health and psychological stability - generally on the quality of life. It is essential to underline that the impact will be most severe in the vulnerable countries in the South; it creates a new form of injustice.

4. Society At Stake

Climate Change cannot be isolated from other factors of social and environmental degradation. They inter-act. The real danger is their accumulated impact.

Why is action so slow? Many psychological reasons can be given. But the main reason lies in the fact that measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions run against the dynamics of the present project of society based in ever-expanding production and consumption. A vision of society is at stake.

5. The Task Ahead: Solidarity

What are the tasks which arise for society and, in particular, for the Churches? Four areas can be mentioned:

a) A new round of negotiations on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions must be initiated at the earliest possible date;
b) Since natural catastrophes are bound to increase, society needs to be prepared to stand in solidarity with the victims of climate change, especially those in the most vulnerable countries;
c) Strong emphasis must be placed on adaptation measures protecting vulnerable people against the weather hazards of the future;
d) The challenge posed by the needs of adaptation may well exceed the capacity of human solidarity. The calculations of the insurance business give an impressive illustration of the growing risks. More and more areas are left to the spontaneous solidarity of people.

6. Facing The Challenge

Relief and Development Agencies face new challenges. Policies may need to be reviewed.

a) More emergencies will occur;

b) Relief must be so organized that it does not end in dependence;

c) Adaptation to changing climate conditions becomes a major emphasis;

d) The concept of development needs to be re-thought as to include disaster preparedness;

e) Risk assessment acquires increased importance; risk assessment findings need to be widely communicated;

f) Relief and development agencies are well placed to plead the case of a new round of climate change negotiations.

7. Living Spirit

Spiritually, the struggle against environmental degradation, in particular, the impact of climate change, must address the contradictions in society, especially the present economic course e.g. non-sustainable consumption in many countries, the increasing gap between rich and poor, the net flow of money from poor to rich countries. Every effort needs to be made to maintain the quality of solidarity in a world whose quality of life is steadily deteriorating. <WM

Copyright©2003 World Mission Magazine

THE CLIMATE AND US

What are the priorities with regard to climate change? And what witness are the Churches called to bear?

A New Solidarity

Weather extremes and natural disasters are bound to increase together with the relative number of victims

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A New Solidarity

PRIORITIES OF A RESPONSE

Clearly, the Kyoto Protocol – for all its merits - cannot be the end of the campaign. As soon as possible after its ratification, a new round of negotiations must be initiated. In accord with all reasonable people, the Churches have to exercise maximum pressure to this effect.

New framework

The Kyoto Protocol clearly states that “commitments for subsequent periods” need to be considered in good time. Since the first commitment period ends in 2012, consideration of a new round needs to begin not later than 2005.

Aviation is at present responsible for 3% of all CO2 emission, and the percentage is rapidly growing. In addition, aviation, both civil and military, has other negative effects on the climate system. Only part of this impact is accounted for under the present climate change convention. The emissions of international travel are not included in any national account. It is essential that the effects of aviation will fully be considered in future negotiations.

A next round of negotiations may well need to be based on a new framework. To achieve a fair distribution of rights and obligations, it may be preferable to establish maximum levels of greenhouse gas emissions for each country rather than to fix overall targets of reduction.

Solidarity with victims

With the growing frequency of natural catastrophes, the number of victims is bound to increase. Whatever the outcome of future negotiations, there is therefore urgent need to strengthen the capacity to stand ready for immediate aid and to limit their impact.

As weather extremes multiply, natural catastrophes can no longer be considered as isolated events. They belong to the pattern caused by climate change and need to be faced as part of the risks which are inherent to human life. It is essential to sharpen the general recognition of this development.

Emergency help will more frequently be called for. Society, both nationally and internationally, needs therefore be so ordered that aid is available when catastrophes occur. Budget reserves need to be established. Personnel needs to be trained and capable and equipped to respond to unexpected situations. Invariably, authorities are accused not to have taken in time the necessary measures to reduce their effect and in particular to have neglected to work on disaster plans and to set up disaster teams.

As the number of environmental refugees increases, new approaches must be developed. What can be done to facilitate the return to the home country? What are the possibilities of providing new homes in other areas?

Adaptation to changed conditions

As weather extremes increase, adaptation acquires increased urgency. Every effort must be made to prevent disasters from occurring with the same devastating effects.

Today, catastrophes often occur unexpectedly in areas which are not prepared to cope with their impact. Every catastrophe provides lessons for the future. Maximum adaptation to new climate conditions must be achieved.

Both emergency help and adaptation measures call for international action. The capacity to respond is not the same in rich and poor countries. While in developed countries means for a certain degree of adaptation are available, developing countries can normally not afford adequate measures. A new form of international solidarity is required to meet the needs of adaptation.

The magnitude of the task

The challenge to human solidarity is formidable; and it is growing.

To measure its extent, it is useful to consider present developments in the insurance business. Climate change causes deep concern with insurance companies. The growing frequency of natural catastrophes increases the risks which they are obliged to meet. How long will they be able to cover the damage resulting from weather extremes and other hazards? Basically the insurance business is an attempt at solidarity. The risk of losses is shared among those who pay annual premiums. To be viable, the insurance business has to make a careful assessment of the risks which it is prepared to cover. It cannot shoulder more risks than it is financially capable to cover.

If risks increase it has to raise the premiums. But premiums cannot be raised beyond the financial capacity of those who seek insurance. If premiums cannot be raised, the insurance companies have no other solution than to refuse insuring certain risks. They will have to select their targets.

The consequence is that generally only rich countries and the rich in poor countries have the benefit of insurance. Re-insurance companies such as Swiss-Re have 50% of their business in North America, 30% in Europe and only 20% in the rest of the world. Vast areas of life, especially in poorer countries, remain therefore non-insured. Sober, profit oriented risk assessment leads to an increase of these non-insured areas.

To a certain extent, insurance companies, in particular re-insurance companies, are allies in the struggle against climate change. They are interested in both mitigation of and adaptation to climate change in order to reduce risks. Their careful risk assessment can be of immense help if its results are openly communicated to the wider public.

But at the same time their findings are a further indication of the growing challenge of climate change. In future, more and more hazards will need to be met by spontaneous and generous solidarity with no expectation of 'economic returns'.

Consequences for relief and development agencies

The increase of weather anomalies has, obviously, implications for relief and development agencies. They need to adapt their policies to the new emerging realities.

Generally, relief and development agencies place primary emphasis on self-reliance and development. They seek to enable the recipients of aid to take their own initiatives towards new life conditions. Education, community building and economic self-development are high on their agenda. Clearly, when catastrophes occur, they stand ready to intervene. But as they provide aid, they seek to restore the conditions which allow development activities to resume with as little delay as possible.

For a long time environmental issues had no prominence in development work; and even today policy statements do not necessarily explicitly refer to the need for action against ecological destruction. Inevitably, however, the consequences of climate change will loom larger on the work of relief and development agencies.<WM

THE CLIMATE AND US

The response to climate change cannot be limited to technical considerations. Spiritual resources are required. The tasks cannot therefore be "delegated" to agencies. They need to involve the Churches as a whole. Churches have a responsibility to speak out in public, to name the threats and to prepare people for an adequate response

Commitment is needed to save the environment